Due to the ongoing uncertainty in the global economic outlook this year and the slow pace of inventory reduction in the semiconductor industry, which cannot stimulate new demand, the best scenario for the global semiconductor industry in 2012 is only a slight growth.

It is estimated that the global semiconductor revenue in 2012 will reach 323.2 billion US dollars (approximately 9.5667 trillion Taiwanese dollars), a slight increase of 3.3% compared to 312.8 billion US dollars in 2011, but slightly higher than the annual growth rate of only 1.25% in the global semiconductor industry revenue in 2011.

If the economic situation in the United States and other regions begins to recover in 2013, the growth of the semiconductor industry is expected to regain vitality. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of semiconductor revenue from 2013 to 2015 will reach between 6.6% and 7.9%, and by 2015, the global semiconductor industry revenue can climb to $397.7 billion (TWD 11.7719 trillion).

The main reason for the slow growth of the semiconductor industry in 2011 and 2012 was due to external factors, such as economic recession and various problems in the United States, Europe, Japan, and other regions. The global economic situation was not strong enough to drive growth, and the semiconductor industry fell into a difficult situation.

Q2 orders are expected to see a resurgence

Consumers are also a key factor affecting the growth of the semiconductor industry. Although consumers bought a lot of electronic products during the peak shopping season in Europe and America at the end of 2011, which reduced semiconductor inventory, it was not enough to increase the demand for semiconductors.

Even worse, in the third quarter of 2011, many companies reduced their capacity utilization rates to alleviate inventory pressure, but these efforts were unable to lower inventory enough to generate new orders. Therefore, orders from semiconductor manufacturers continue to be sluggish, and there will be a chance for a rebound only in the second quarter of this year.

Wafer foundry performance looks promising

The sluggish demand has a comprehensive impact on the semiconductor industry. Taking IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturers) as an example, the sluggish demand leads to poor capacity utilization. Therefore, IDM wants to maintain the operation of inefficient wafer fabs, which is under double pressure, resulting in capital expenditures to improve efficiency being postponed until after 2013.

For the semiconductor industry, the first half of 2012 was undoubtedly a difficult test period. In the traditional off-season of the first quarter, semiconductor revenue will decline, then rebound and grow strongly in the second quarter, and then rebound and grow strongly in the third quarter. This is the typical seasonal growth pace of the traditional semiconductor industry, and this year will follow this trend without any surprises.

The performance of the wafer foundry industry will be better than the overall semiconductor industry, especially for wafer foundries with advanced process capacity. The main reason is that the wireless communication application market is growing rapidly, and many of the main components of wireless communication devices require advanced semiconductor processes.

From the perspective of the demand of major semiconductor users, global brand manufacturers purchased semiconductors worth $240.6 billion in 2011, a 5% increase from $230.1 billion in 2010. It is estimated that the global brand manufacturer's semiconductor procurement amount this year will climb another 3%, reaching 247.8 billion US dollars (7.3348 trillion Taiwanese dollars).

From the perspective of semiconductor procurement by brand manufacturers in 2011, the amount of wireless communication ranked first, reaching 65.1 billion US dollars, accounting for 24% of all procurement. The expansion of wireless communication applications is mainly due to the iPhone, iPad, and smartphones.